Match details. Championship. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Ards FC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D W. Institute FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W.
The numbers. Ards FC score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Ards FC average 7.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Institute FC score 1.9 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. Institute FC average 4.9 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
The case against. Ards FC's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Institute FC to win. An open game. Institute FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Institute FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, 76% on the records (Ards FC: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Institute FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Ards FC 1-2 Institute FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).