GCGDC

20:00Fri 16 Oct

OSM

GD Chaves vs Os Marialvas

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Taca de Portugal, Round of 64. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. GD Chaves have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W L. In this competition GD Chaves have gone W. Os Marialvas have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. In this competition Os Marialvas have gone W W.

The numbers. GD Chaves score 1.3 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. GD Chaves average 13.5 shots (5.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Os Marialvas score 1.8 and concede 0.2 a game in their last six away, with five clean sheets. Os Marialvas average 11.9 shots (3.7 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.9 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 10% against the records' 63%.

The read. No firm call: Os Marialvas are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Os Marialvas the likelier winners; Os Marialvas are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Os Marialvas. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: GD Chaves 1-2 Os Marialvas (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.23

GDC 8 of 10 (80%) · OSM 3 of 6 (50%)65%

GD Chaves: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Os Marialvas: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 65%

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.21

GDC 10 of 10 (100%) · OSM 4 of 6 (67%)80.6%

GD Chaves: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Os Marialvas: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

GDC 8 of 10 (80%) · OSM 5 of 6 (83%)79.4%

GD Chaves: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Os Marialvas: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9.8%

GD Chaves goals →

Os Marialvas goals ↓

0-07%

1-05%

2-02%

3-00.6%

4-00.1%

5-00.0%

0-112%

1-111%

2-14%

3-11%

4-10.2%

5-10.0%

0-212%

1-210%

2-24%

3-21%

4-20.2%

5-20.0%

0-38%

1-36%

2-33%

3-30.7%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-44%

1-43%

2-41%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-51%

1-51%

2-50.5%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

GD CHAVESLWLLDLWWLD1.10 PPG

OS MARIALVASWDLWLWWWWD2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

GD CHAVES HOMExOS MARIALVAS AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME1.501.90CONCEDED A GAME0.3010%CLEAN SHEETS80%29%FAILED TO SCORE20%4.00CORNERS A GAME5.302.20CARDS A GAME2.90

TRENDS

GD Chaves have scored in 80% of their games.

Os Marialvas have scored in 70% of their games.

GD Chaves kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Os Marialvas kept a clean sheet in 80% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards