Karbalaa vs Al-Gharraf SC
Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Karbalaa are 20th on 6 points after 9 games, level on points with Gharraf. A win would take them above Gharraf. Al-Gharraf SC are 19th on 6 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Al Karkh, level on points with Karbala. A win would take them above Al Karkh.
Form. Karbalaa have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. Al-Gharraf SC have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D.
The numbers. Karbalaa score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Karbalaa average 9.1 shots (3.5 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Al-Gharraf SC score 0.4 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and six games without a goal. Al-Gharraf SC average 10.0 shots (3.6 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. Al-Gharraf SC's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. Karbalaa to win. A tight game. Karbalaa are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Karbalaa. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19, 76% on the records (Karbalaa: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Al-Gharraf SC: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Al-Gharraf SC or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Karbalaa); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Karbalaa 1-0 Al-Gharraf SC (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).