Lions FC vs South Hobart FC
Match details. Australian Championship, Group Stage - 1. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 08:00 Lagos time. It is played at Lions Stadium, Brisbane.
What's at stake. Lions FC are 3rd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Canberra FC. South Hobart FC are 4th on 0 points after 0 games.
Form. Lions FC have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. South Hobart FC have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W.
The numbers. Lions FC score 2.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last seven at home, with five clean sheets. Lions FC average 14.4 shots (6.5 on target), 6.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game. South Hobart FC score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. South Hobart FC average 18.8 shots (8.5 on target), 8.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 92% against the records' 58%.
The read. No firm call: Lions FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Lions FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lions FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lions FC 2-1 South Hobart FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).