Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS vs Cruzeiro EC MG
Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre. The referee is Joao Vitor Gobi.
What's at stake. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS are 18th on 31 points after 30 games, 1 point behind Internacional, 6 points clear of Remo. A win would take them above Internacional. Cruzeiro EC MG are 7th on 48 points after 30 games, 1 point behind Bahia, 6 points clear of Santos. A win would take them above Bahia.
Team news. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS are without J. Cabral (inactive), Wallace (yellow cards), Matheus Nascimento (inactive), J. Cabral (inactive), Wallace (yellow cards), Matheus Nascimento (inactive). Cruzeiro EC MG are without Felipe Morais (yellow cards), Gabriel Pec (broken leg), L. Romero (injury), L. Sinisterra (muscle injury), N. Villarreal (ankle injury), Felipe Morais (yellow cards).
Form. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D L L. In this competition Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS have gone D D D L L L. Cruzeiro EC MG have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. In this competition Cruzeiro EC MG have gone L W W L W L.
The numbers. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS average 12.5 shots (3.9 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.4 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Cruzeiro EC MG score 1.7 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. Cruzeiro EC MG average 17.5 shots (6.9 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS have won two, drawn two and lost five. Two of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, one was drawn and Cruzeiro EC MG won three. The last time they met, on 18 Apr 2026, it finished Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 0-2 Cruzeiro EC MG: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS had 9 shots to 18, 59% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%; seven of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS's record still gives them 33% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The read. Cruzeiro EC MG to win. A tight game. Cruzeiro EC MG are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cruzeiro EC MG; the meetings favour Cruzeiro EC MG. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Seven of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Cruzeiro EC MG or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS Under 1.5 goals (Cruzeiro EC MG's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 0-1 Cruzeiro EC MG (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).