Fluminense FC RJ vs Santos FC SP
Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. The referee is Ramon Abatti.
What's at stake. Fluminense FC RJ are 4th on 51 points after 30 games, 2 points behind Atletico Paranaense, 1 point clear of Atletico-MG. A win would take them above Atletico Paranaense. Santos FC SP are 8th on 42 points after 30 games, 6 points behind Cruzeiro, 2 points clear of RB Bragantino.
Team news. Fluminense FC RJ are without Alisson (hip injury), G. Cano (hamstring injury), Guilherme Arana (yellow cards), John Kennedy (knee injury), Matheus Reis (knee injury), Alisson (hip injury). Santos FC SP are without Arthur Melo (muscle injury), Gabriel Brazao (shoulder injury), Neymar (inactive), Vinicius Lira (knee injury), Willian Arao (yellow cards), Willian Arao (injury).
Form. Fluminense FC RJ have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. In this competition Fluminense FC RJ have gone L W W L W D. Santos FC SP have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W W. In this competition Santos FC SP have gone L D W W W W.
The numbers. Fluminense FC RJ score two and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Fluminense FC RJ average 13.6 shots (5.9 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Santos FC SP score two and concede one a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Santos FC SP average 13.9 shots (4.8 on target), 4.9 corners and 3.8 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Fluminense FC RJ have won five, drawn four and lost one. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Fluminense FC RJ won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 19 Apr 2026, it finished Fluminense FC RJ 3-2 Santos FC SP: Fluminense FC RJ had 10 shots to 7, 53% of the ball, eight yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Santos FC SP's record still gives them 31% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The read. Fluminense FC RJ to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Fluminense FC RJ the likelier winners; Fluminense FC RJ are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Fluminense FC RJ; the meetings favour Fluminense FC RJ. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Fluminense FC RJ 1UP at 1.64, 70% on the records (Fluminense FC RJ scored first 3 of last 5, led in 4; led in 4 of 5 at home). Leave: Fluminense FC RJ or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Fluminense FC RJ or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Fluminense FC RJ 1-0 Santos FC SP (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).