BCBUR

20:00Sun 18 Oct

CES

Burgos CF vs CE Sabadell FC

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. LaLiga 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Municipal El Plantio, Burgos.

What's at stake. Burgos CF are 8th on 14 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Girona, level on points with Oviedo. A win would take them above Girona. CE Sabadell FC are 6th on 16 points after 9 games, 2 points behind Mallorca, 1 point clear of Girona. A win would take them above Mallorca.

Form. Burgos CF have won four, drawn two and lost three of their last nine, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. In this competition Burgos CF have gone L L W W W D. CE Sabadell FC have won four, drawn four and lost one of their last nine, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W L. In this competition CE Sabadell FC have gone W D D W L W.

The numbers. Burgos CF score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Burgos CF average 11.1 shots (3.0 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. CE Sabadell FC score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. CE Sabadell FC average 14.9 shots (4.2 on target), 5.4 corners and 3.4 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CE Sabadell FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); CE Sabadell FC Over 0.5 goals (CE Sabadell FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Burgos CF 1-1 CE Sabadell FC (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BUR 5 of 5 (100%) · CES 5 of 5 (100%)95.7%

Burgos CF: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · CE Sabadell FC: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · Burgos CF: only games against sides at CE Sabadell FC's level · CE Sabadell FC: only games against sides at Burgos CF's level

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.17

BUR 2 of 5 (40%) · CES 5 of 5 (100%)75.5%

Burgos CF: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · CE Sabadell FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 72% · Burgos CF: only games against sides at CE Sabadell FC's level · CE Sabadell FC: only games against sides at Burgos CF's level

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.49

BUR 2 of 5 (40%) · CES 4 of 5 (80%)54.1%

Burgos CF: under 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · CE Sabadell FC: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 56% · Burgos CF: only games against sides at CE Sabadell FC's level · CE Sabadell FC: only games against sides at Burgos CF's level

CARDS

Over 4.5 cardsIN CODES

1.28

BUR 6 of 8 (75%) · CES 6 of 8 (75%)75%

Burgos CF's games: over 4.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · CE Sabadell FC's games: over 4.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · Burgos CF: only games against sides at CE Sabadell FC's level · CE Sabadell FC: only games against sides at Burgos CF's level

Left off the list: CE Sabadell FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); CE Sabadell FC Over 0.5 goals (CE Sabadell FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); CE Sabadell FC or draw and under 3.5 goals (no result call)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.5%

Burgos CF goals →

CE Sabadell FC goals ↓

0-09%

1-010%

2-08%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.6%

1-40.8%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 9

BURGOS CFWLDDWWWLL1.56 PPG

CE SABADELL FCDDWWLWDDW1.78 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BURGOS CF HOMExCE SABADELL FC AWAY

1.33SCORED A GAME1.111.11CONCEDED A GAME0.7822%CLEAN SHEETS44%33%FAILED TO SCORE44%3.75CORNERS A GAME5.382.88CARDS A GAME3.381.33xG1.271.57xG AGAINST0.95

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.57POINTS A GAME2.17+0.29GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.50-4.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.71.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.07LEAGUE GAMES6

CE Sabadell FC: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

58%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

54%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

BURGOS CF OR DRAW

65%

NO · 80/85

CE SABADELL FC OR DRAW

51%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

BURGOS CFxCE SABADELL FC

5GAMES51.40SCORED A GAME1.601.00CONCEDED A GAME1.202.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.860%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE60%5.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.68.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES7.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Burgos CF have scored in 70% of their games.

CE Sabadell FC have scored in 60% of their games.

Burgos CF failed to score in 33% of their games.

CE Sabadell FC failed to score in 44% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAleague tablecornerscards