Match details. Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. The referee is Alex Bos.
What's at stake. NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 9 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Excelsior, level on points with Sparta Rotterdam. A win would take them above Excelsior. Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 14 points after 8 games, level on points with Groningen, 2 points clear of Heerenveen. A win would take them above Groningen.
Team news. NEC Nijmegen are without E. Mor (groin injury), B. Nuytinck (ankle injury), P. Sandler (injury), D. Tadic (injury), A. Thomas (inactive), E. Mor (groin injury). Fortuna Sittard are without R. Bayram (knee injury), I. Marquez (injury), Y. Oukili (groin injury), J. Dahlhaus (inactive), R. Bayram (knee injury), I. Marquez (injury).
Form. NEC Nijmegen have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D L L. Fortuna Sittard have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W.
The numbers. NEC Nijmegen score 1.2 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. NEC Nijmegen average 10.5 shots (3.8 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Fortuna Sittard score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Fortuna Sittard average 9.6 shots (4.4 on target), 3.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 36% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings NEC Nijmegen have won four, drawn three and lost three. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. In the last four, NEC Nijmegen won two and Fortuna Sittard won two. The last time they met, on 28 Feb 2026, it finished NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard: NEC Nijmegen had 15 shots to 13, 68% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 76% on the records (NEC Nijmegen: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6; Fortuna Sittard: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Fortuna Sittard or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Fortuna Sittard win or both teams score (no result call). Predicted score: NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Fortuna Sittard (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).