Match details. Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time. It is played at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg. The referee is Espen Eskas.
What's at stake. Sarpsborg 08 are 9th on 28 points after 22 games, 1 point behind Fredrikstad, level on points with KFUM Oslo. A win would take them above Fredrikstad. Rosenborg BK are 5th on 34 points after 22 games, 3 points behind Molde, 1 point clear of Lillestrom. A win would take them level on points with Molde.
Team news. Sarpsborg 08 are without F. Carstensen (injury), M. Opoku (ankle injury), F. Carstensen (injury), M. Opoku (ankle injury). Rosenborg BK are without J. Bakke (injury), A. Chiakha (yellow cards), T. Nemcik (yellow cards), O. Selnaes (red card), E. Slordal (foot injury), H. Volden (injury).
Form. Sarpsborg 08 have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D D. In this competition Sarpsborg 08 have gone W L D D D L. Rosenborg BK have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L. In this competition Rosenborg BK have gone D W W W L W.
The numbers. Sarpsborg 08 score 1.4 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sarpsborg 08 average 15.4 shots (5.2 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Rosenborg BK score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Rosenborg BK average 16.4 shots (7.8 on target), 6.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Sarpsborg 08 have won five, drawn two and lost one. Seven of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, Sarpsborg 08 won one, two were drawn and Rosenborg BK won one. The last time they met, on 12 Apr 2026, it finished Sarpsborg 08 1-2 Rosenborg BK: Sarpsborg 08 had 13 shots to 16, 43% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Rosenborg BK are the form side, but the meetings favour Sarpsborg 08: in the last eight meetings, Sarpsborg 08 won five, Rosenborg BK won one and two were drawn.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 73%. Seven of the last eight meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 79% on the records (Sarpsborg 08: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10; Rosenborg BK: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Sarpsborg 08 or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Rosenborg BK or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Sarpsborg 08 or Both Teams Score (no result call). Predicted score: Sarpsborg 08 1-2 Rosenborg BK (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).