QARQAR

16:00Sat 17 Oct

NEF

Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku PFC

CLASS B

THE READ

Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu, Baku.

What's at stake. Qarabag are 3rd on 16 points after 6 games, level on points with Sabah FA, 2 points clear of Turan. A win would take them above Sabah FA. Neftchi Baku PFC are 1st on 16 points after 7 games, level on points with Sabah FA.

Form. Qarabag have won five, drawn one and lost none of their last six, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. Neftchi Baku PFC have won five, drawn one and lost one of their last seven, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L. In this competition Neftchi Baku PFC have gone D W W W L W.

The numbers. Qarabag score 1.8 and concede 0.7 a game over their last six, with three clean sheets. Neftchi Baku PFC score 2.6 and concede 0.7 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Qarabag have won nine, drawn none and lost one. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Qarabag won three and Neftchi Baku PFC won one. The last time they met, on 30 Apr 2026, it finished Qarabag 1-2 Neftchi Baku PFC.

The case against. Neftchi Baku PFC's record still gives them 31% to win.

The read. Qarabag to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Qarabag the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Qarabag; the meetings favour Qarabag. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Neftchi Baku PFC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Qarabag); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Qarabag 2-1 Neftchi Baku PFC (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Qarabag or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

QAR 6 of 6 (100%) · NEF 6 of 7 (86%)95.9%

Qarabag: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 93% · H2H 6 of 6 · Qarabag: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Qarabag's level

Qarabag or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.30

QAR 5 of 6 (83%) · NEF 6 of 7 (86%)85.1%

Qarabag: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · H2H 6 of 6 · Qarabag: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Qarabag's level

Double Chance: Qarabag or Neftchi Baku PFCIN CODES

1.28

QAR 5 of 6 (83%) · NEF 6 of 7 (86%)74.6%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.20

QAR 4 of 6 (67%) · NEF 5 of 7 (71%)82.1%

Qarabag: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 69% · H2H 5 of 6 · Qarabag: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Qarabag's level

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.69

QAR 2 of 6 (33%) · NEF 5 of 7 (71%)57.1%

Qarabag: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 52% · H2H 4 of 6 · Qarabag: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Qarabag's level

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.18

QAR 5 of 6 (83%) · NEF 5 of 7 (71%)78.9%

Qarabag: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Qarabag: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Qarabag's level

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.29

QAR 3 of 6 (50%) · NEF 6 of 7 (86%)63.4%

Qarabag: the bet landed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Neftchi Baku PFC: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · H2H 3 of 6 · on half-time scores · Qarabag: only games against sides at Neftchi Baku PFC's level · Neftchi Baku PFC: only games against sides at Qarabag's level

Left off the list: Neftchi Baku PFC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Qarabag); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.6%

Qarabag goals →

Neftchi Baku PFC goals ↓

0-07%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.3%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 7

QARABAGWWWDWW2.67 PPG

NEFTCHI BAKU PFCWWLWWWD2.29 PPG

THE NUMBERS

QARABAG HOMExNEFTCHI BAKU PFC AWAY

1.83SCORED A GAME2.570.67CONCEDED A GAME0.7150%CLEAN SHEETS43%0%FAILED TO SCORE29%

THE BANK

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

67%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

44%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 85/90

QARABAG OR DRAW

73%

NO · 80/85

NEFTCHI BAKU PFC OR DRAW

34%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

QARABAG 9 · 90%DRAW 0NEFTCHI BAKU PFC 1 · 10%

3 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

9 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

8 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

5 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2024-04-02Qarabag 4 – 0 Neftchi Baku PFC

2024-04-24Qarabag 4 – 1 Neftchi Baku PFC

2024-05-04Qarabag 5 – 0 Neftchi Baku PFC

2024-09-20Qarabag 4 – 0 Neftchi Baku PFC

2024-12-01Qarabag 3 – 0 Neftchi Baku PFC

2025-02-16Qarabag 1 – 0 Neftchi Baku PFC

2025-04-19Qarabag 3 – 0 Neftchi Baku PFC

2025-11-09Qarabag 2 – 0 Neftchi Baku PFC

TRENDS

Qarabag failed to score in 0% of their games.

Neftchi Baku PFC failed to score in 29% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to headleague table