Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig scored in 5 of 6 away · Real Madrid conceded in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 86% · H2H 2 of 4 · each game weighed by who it was against
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. The referee is Istvan Kovacs.
What's at stake. Real Madrid are 9th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Arsenal, level on points with Real Betis. A win would take them above Arsenal. RB Leipzig are 23rd on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Napoli, level on points with Feyenoord. A win would take them above Napoli.
Team news. Real Madrid are without R. Asencio (broken leg), F. Mendy (hip injury), Rodrygo (knee injury), R. Asencio (broken leg), F. Mendy (hip injury), Rodrygo (knee injury). RB Leipzig are without M. Guiu (hamstring injury), A. Ouedraogo (shoulder injury), L. Zingerle (off the roster), M. Guiu (hamstring injury), A. Ouedraogo (shoulder injury), L. Zingerle (off the roster).
Form. Real Madrid have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. In this competition Real Madrid have gone W W. RB Leipzig have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. In this competition RB Leipzig have gone W L.
The numbers. Real Madrid score 3.2 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Real Madrid average 16.2 shots (6.8 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. RB Leipzig score 1.7 and concede 3.2 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. RB Leipzig average 17.5 shots (6.2 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Real Madrid have won two, drawn one and lost one. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 6 Mar 2024, it finished Real Madrid 1-1 RB Leipzig: Real Madrid had 11 shots to 20, 54% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%; three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Real Madrid to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Real Madrid the likelier winners; Real Madrid are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Madrid. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%.
The bets. Best bet: Real Madrid (Draw No Bet) at 1.10, 82% on the records (Real Madrid won 6 of 6 at home (draws left out); RB Leipzig lost 5 of 6 away (draws left out)). Backup: 2nd Half - Real Madrid Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Real Madrid win and over 2.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Real Madrid are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Real Madrid are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Real Madrid 2-1 RB Leipzig (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).