Aston Villa vs Viking FK
Match details. Aston Villa host Viking FK at Villa Park, Birmingham in the UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct at 20:00 Lagos time. Sebastian Gishamer is the referee.
What's at stake. Aston Villa are 4th on 6 points after 2 games, 1 point behind VfB Stuttgart and level on points with Barcelona. A win would take them above VfB Stuttgart. Viking FK are 29th on 1 point after 2 games, 1 point behind Fenerbahçe and level on points with Slavia Praha. A win would take them above Fenerbahçe.
Team news. Aston Villa are without M. Cisse and B. Madjo who are off the roster, J. Manzambi with a calf injury, A. Onana with a knee injury, plus M. Ruggeri and A. Wan-Bissaka with muscle injuries. Viking FK are missing A. Baertelsen with a foot injury, V. Berisha with a thigh injury, S. Bjorshol with a knee injury, N. D'Agostino with a leg injury, K. Frimpong off the roster, and M. Roseth with a knee injury.
Form. Aston Villa have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, with 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first, read W W D W W, and they have gone W W in this competition. Viking FK have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, with 2.3 points a game. Their last five read W D W W W.
The numbers. Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 16.1 shots with 6.4 on target, 5.1 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Viking FK score two and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. They average 13.8 shots with 6.0 on target, 7.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 38% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways for this one. Their goals for and against make Aston Villa the likelier winners, but Viking FK are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Viking FK.
The case against. Viking FK's record still gives them 47% to win.
The read. Aston Villa to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Aston Villa the likelier winners; Viking FK are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Viking FK. Their goals for and against point to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Aston Villa are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Aston Villa are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Aston Villa 2-1 Viking FK (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).