Lille vs Galatasaray Istanbul
Match details. Lille host Galatasaray Istanbul in the UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct at 17:45 Lagos time at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. The referee is Rade Obrenovic.
What's at stake. Lille are 34th on 0 points after two games, level on points with FC Porto and Galatasaray. A win would take them above FC Porto. Galatasaray Istanbul sit 35th on 0 points after two games, level on points with Lille and Slovan Bratislava. A win would take them above Lille.
Team news. Lille are without top scorer A. Ueda due to a foot injury, alongside H. Igamane with a knee injury, E. Mbappe through a red card, T. Santos with a knee injury, and inactive O. Sahraoui. Galatasaray Istanbul are missing R. Leao to injury, while E. Aydin, K. Ayhan, A. Guner, K. Karatas and A. Unyay are off the roster.
Form. Lille have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, picking up 1.4 points a game. Their last five read D L W L W, and they have gone L L in this competition. Galatasaray Istanbul have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, averaging 1.9 points a game. They have gone W L W L W in their last five and L L in this competition.
The numbers. Lille score 1.3 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, keeping two clean sheets. They average 10.6 shots (4.0 on target), 3.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game with 50% of the ball. Galatasaray Istanbul score 1.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away with two clean sheets. They average 18.2 shots (6.2 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game with 57% of the ball.
The case against. Galatasaray Istanbul's record still gives them 48% to win.
The read. Lille or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Galatasaray Istanbul are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Galatasaray Istanbul. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21, 83% on the records (Lille: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Galatasaray Istanbul: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Lille or Draw & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lille 2-1 Galatasaray Istanbul (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).