Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. The referee is Sandro Schärer.
What's at stake. Roma are 25th on 1 point after 2 games, 2 points behind Bodo/Glimt, level on points with PSV Eindhoven. A win would take them above Bodo/Glimt. Slovan Bratislava are 36th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Galatasaray. A win would take them above Galatasaray.
Team news. Roma are without M. Bah (knee injury), P. Dybala (calf injury), M. Kone (muscle injury), M. Svilar (toe injury), M. Bah (knee injury), P. Dybala (calf injury). M. Svilar is their first-choice keeper. P. Dybala is their main creator. Slovan Bratislava are without R. Cerepkai (back injury), A. Griger (off the roster), M. Kianga (off the roster), M. Kukharevych (injury), A. Sporar (illness), R. Cerepkai (back injury).
Form. Roma have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W. In this competition Roma have gone L D. Slovan Bratislava have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W.
The numbers. Roma score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Roma average 16.5 shots (5.5 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Slovan Bratislava score 2.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last seven away, with two clean sheets. Slovan Bratislava average 10.9 shots (4.3 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 89% against the records' 46%.
The read. No firm call: Roma are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Roma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Roma. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.23, 72% on the records (Roma: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Slovan Bratislava: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 7 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Roma are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Roma are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Roma 2-1 Slovan Bratislava (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).