INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

PORPOR

20:00Tue 20 Oct

PSV

Porto vs PSV Eindhoven

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Dragão, Porto. The referee is Daniel Siebert.

What's at stake. Porto are 30th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Inter, level on points with Slavia Praha. A win would take them above Inter. PSV Eindhoven are 26th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with AS Roma, level on points with Viking. A win would take them above AS Roma.

Team news. Porto are without Gabriel Mec (off the roster), D. Prpic (off the roster), V. Sousa (leg injury), William Gomes (ankle injury), Gabriel Mec (off the roster), D. Prpic (off the roster). PSV Eindhoven are without S. Lammers (lacking match fitness), A. Nagalo (injury), S. Ouaissa (muscle injury), R. Pepi (injury), A. Plea (surgery), J. Schouten (knee injury).

Form. Porto have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Porto have gone L L. PSV Eindhoven have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. In this competition PSV Eindhoven have gone L D.

The numbers. Porto score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Porto average 15.4 shots (5.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. PSV Eindhoven score 2.3 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. PSV Eindhoven average 16.8 shots (5.8 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.

The case against. PSV Eindhoven's record still gives them 41% to win.

The read. Porto to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Porto the likelier winners; Porto are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Porto. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Porto Over 1.5 goals (PSV Eindhoven's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Porto 2-1 PSV Eindhoven (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Porto or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

POR 5 of 5 (100%) · PSV 6 of 6 (100%)95%

Porto: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · PSV Eindhoven: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against

Porto or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.19

POR 4 of 5 (80%) · PSV 6 of 6 (100%)77.4%

Porto: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · PSV Eindhoven: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 83% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.16

POR 5 of 5 (100%) · PSV 5 of 6 (83%)85.5%

Porto: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · PSV Eindhoven: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

PORTO GOALS

Porto Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.10

POR 4 of 5 (80%) · PSV 6 of 6 (100%)85.8%

Porto scored in 4 of 5 at home · PSV Eindhoven conceded in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 88% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.17

POR 4 of 5 (80%) · PSV 6 of 6 (100%)91.1%

Porto: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · PSV Eindhoven: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 91% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.30

POR 3 of 5 (60%) · PSV 5 of 6 (83%)71.1%

Porto: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · PSV Eindhoven: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 76% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 3.5 CardsIN CODES

1.34

POR 5 of 8 (62%) · PSV 4 of 5 (80%)70.8%

Porto's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · PSV Eindhoven's games: over 3.5 cards in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Porto Over 1.5 goals (PSV Eindhoven's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.7%

Porto goals →

PSV Eindhoven goals ↓

0-07%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.8%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.2%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

PORTOWWWWWLWWWL2.40 PPG

PSV EINDHOVENWWWWDWLWLL1.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

PORTO HOMExPSV EINDHOVEN AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME2.600.90CONCEDED A GAME1.2040%CLEAN SHEETS10%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%5.50CORNERS A GAME6.121.50CARDS A GAME2.381.83xG2.021.11xG AGAINST1.59

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

3.00POINTS A GAME2.11+2.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.67+6.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+6.43.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.87LEAGUE GAMES9

Porto: the quality side - more points a game, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

99%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

85%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

73%

NO · 85/90

PORTO OR DRAW

68%

NO · 80/85

PSV EINDHOVEN OR DRAW

34%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

PORTOxPSV EINDHOVEN

5GAMES52.80SCORED A GAME2.400.80CONCEDED A GAME1.403.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.8100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%100%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%80%BOTH SCORE80%3.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.48.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

PORTO

Out: Gabriel Mec (Off the roster), D. Prpic (Off the roster), V. Sousa (Leg Injury), William Gomes (Ankle Injury), Gabriel Mec (Off the roster), D. Prpic (Off the roster)

PSV EINDHOVEN

Out: S. Lammers (Lacking Match Fitness), A. Nagalo (Injury), S. Ouaissa (Muscle Injury), R. Pepi (Injury), A. Plea (Surgery), J. Schouten (Knee Injury)

TRENDS

Porto have scored in 90% of their games.

PSV Eindhoven have scored in 90% of their games.

Porto kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

PSV Eindhoven kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards