INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

NAPNAP

20:00Tue 20 Oct

BOD

Napoli vs Bodoe/Glimt

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Maradona Stadium, Naples. The referee is Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez.

What's at stake. Napoli are 32nd on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Slavia Praha, level on points with Lask Linz. A win would take them above Slavia Praha. Bodoe/Glimt are 24th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Feyenoord, 2 points clear of AS Roma. A win would take them above Feyenoord.

Team news. Napoli are without Alisson Santos (muscle injury), A. Buongiorno (knee injury), David Neres (thigh injury), C. Favasuli (thigh injury), L. Marianucci (off the roster), A. Vergara (calf injury). Bodoe/Glimt are without H. Evjen (knee injury), A. Mikkelsen (groin injury), M. Riisnaes (knee injury), I. Sjong (injury), H. Evjen (knee injury), A. Mikkelsen (groin injury).

Form. Napoli have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. In this competition Napoli have gone L L. Bodoe/Glimt have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L.

The numbers. Napoli score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Napoli average 15.0 shots (5.1 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Bodoe/Glimt score 2.7 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Bodoe/Glimt average 15.9 shots (6.0 on target), 5.9 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.

The case against. Bodoe/Glimt's record still gives them 57% to win.

The read. Napoli to win. A draw is live. An open game. Bodoe/Glimt are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bodoe/Glimt. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Napoli are a clear winner, no Unders); Bodoe/Glimt Under 1.5 goals (Bodoe/Glimt's own games don't back it (2 of 6)). Predicted score: Napoli 2-1 Bodoe/Glimt (7% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Napoli or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

NAP 4 of 5 (80%) · BOD 6 of 6 (100%)90%

Napoli: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 85%

Napoli or Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.23

NAP 4 of 5 (80%) · BOD 5 of 6 (83%)89.7%

Napoli: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

Napoli or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES

1.11

NAP 4 of 5 (80%) · BOD 4 of 6 (67%)82.8%

Napoli: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

GOALS

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.55

NAP 2 of 5 (40%) · BOD 5 of 6 (83%)55.5%

Napoli: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Bodoe/Glimt: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 60%

NAPOLI GOALS

Napoli Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.12

NAP 4 of 5 (80%) · BOD 4 of 6 (67%)82.8%

Napoli scored in 4 of 5 at home · Bodoe/Glimt conceded in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.18

NAP 3 of 5 (60%) · BOD 5 of 6 (83%)76.1%

Napoli: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.27

NAP 3 of 5 (60%) · BOD 5 of 6 (83%)69.4%

Napoli: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Bodoe/Glimt: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (the numbers (90%) and the records (69%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (Napoli are a clear winner - no Unders); Bodoe/Glimt Under 1.5 goals (Bodoe/Glimt's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (Napoli are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 7.3%

Napoli goals →

Bodoe/Glimt goals ↓

0-02%

1-03%

2-04%

3-02%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-14%

1-18%

2-17%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.8%

0-24%

1-28%

2-27%

3-25%

4-22%

5-20.8%

0-33%

1-35%

2-35%

3-33%

4-31%

5-30.6%

0-41%

1-43%

2-42%

3-42%

4-40.7%

5-40.3%

0-50.5%

1-51%

2-51.0%

3-50.6%

4-50.3%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

NAPOLIWWLLLWDWLL1.30 PPG

BODOE/GLIMTWWWLWLWWWW2.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

NAPOLI HOMExBODOE/GLIMT AWAY

1.20SCORED A GAME2.701.10CONCEDED A GAME1.5040%CLEAN SHEETS30%14%FAILED TO SCORE17%5.50CORNERS A GAME5.901.25CARDS A GAME1.30

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.43POINTS A GAME2.75+0.43GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.75-2.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+10.31.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.47LEAGUE GAMES12

Bodoe/Glimt: the quality side - more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

83%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

60%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

86%

OKAY · 85/90

NAPOLI OR DRAW

37%

NO · 80/85

BODOE/GLIMT OR DRAW

64%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 12 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

NAPOLIxBODOE/GLIMT

5GAMES51.40SCORED A GAME2.201.00CONCEDED A GAME1.202.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.460%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE80%2.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.811.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

NAPOLI

Out: Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury), A. Buongiorno (Knee Injury), David Neres (Thigh Injury), C. Favasuli (Thigh Injury), L. Marianucci (Off the roster), A. Vergara (Calf Injury)

BODOE/GLIMT

Out: H. Evjen (Knee Injury), A. Mikkelsen (Groin Injury), M. Riisnaes (Knee Injury), I. Sjong (Injury), H. Evjen (Knee Injury), A. Mikkelsen (Groin Injury)

TRENDS

Napoli have scored in 90% of their games.

Bodoe/Glimt have scored in 90% of their games.

Napoli kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Bodoe/Glimt kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards