Liverpool vs Villarreal
Villarreal scored in 3 of 5 away · Liverpool conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 72% · H2H 2 of 4 · each game weighed by who it was against
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Anfield, Liverpool. The referee is Szymon Marciniak.
What's at stake. Liverpool are 5th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with VfB Stuttgart, level on points with Sporting CP. A win would take them above VfB Stuttgart. Villarreal are 14th on 3 points after 2 games, level on points with Manchester United, level on points with Atletico Madrid. A win would take them above Manchester United.
Team news. Liverpool are without C. Bradley (knee injury), F. Chiesa (off the roster), H. Ekitike (achilles tendon injury), W. Endo (off the roster), J. Frimpong (muscle injury), G. Leoni (knee injury). Villarreal are without T. Buchanan (muscle injury), N. Pepe (eye injury), T. Buchanan (muscle injury), N. Pepe (eye injury).
Form. Liverpool have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. In this competition Liverpool have gone W W. Villarreal have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W. In this competition Villarreal have gone W L.
The numbers. Liverpool score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Liverpool average 15.2 shots (5.4 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Villarreal score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Villarreal average 16.5 shots (6.0 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Liverpool have won three, drawn none and lost one. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 3 May 2022, it finished Liverpool 3-2 Villarreal: Liverpool had 15 shots to 5, 56% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Villarreal's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Liverpool to win. An open game. Liverpool are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Liverpool; the meetings favour Liverpool. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. Best bet: Liverpool or Draw at 1.18, 76% on the records (Liverpool unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; Villarreal failed to win 4 of 5 away). Backup: Liverpool or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Liverpool Over 1.5 goals (Villarreal's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Villarreal Under 1.5 goals (Villarreal's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Liverpool are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).