Match details. Kategoria Superiore, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Skenderbeu Korce are 10th on 3 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Partizani. A win would take them above Partizani. Af Elbasani are 5th on 7 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Tirana, level on points with Laci. A win would take them above Tirana.
Form. Skenderbeu Korce have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L. Af Elbasani have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L D.
The numbers. Skenderbeu Korce score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Skenderbeu Korce average 11.4 shots (4.4 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Af Elbasani score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Af Elbasani average 10.7 shots (3.7 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Skenderbeu Korce have won none, drawn three and lost one. None of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 6 Mar 2025, it finished Skenderbeu Korce 0-0 Af Elbasani.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 30% against the records' 54%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%. Four of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.23, 76% on the records (Skenderbeu Korce: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6; Af Elbasani: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8). Backup: Skenderbeu Korce Over 0.5 Goals at 1.45. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Af Elbasani or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Skenderbeu Korce 1-1 Af Elbasani (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).