AAALA

18:00Wed 21 Oct

ELQ

AL Ahly SC (EGY) vs El Qanah FC

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Cairo International Stadium, a neutral ground.

What's at stake. AL Ahly SC (EGY) are 2nd on 16 points after 6 games, 5 points behind Pyramids FC, level on points with Zamalek SC. El Qanah FC are 13th on 7 points after 6 games, 1 point behind AL Masry, level on points with Wadi Degla. A win would take them above AL Masry.

Form. AL Ahly SC (EGY) have won five, drawn one and lost none of their last six, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. El Qanah FC have won one, drawn four and lost one of their last six, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D D D.

The numbers. AL Ahly SC (EGY) score 1.8 and concede 0.5 a game over their last six, with four clean sheets. AL Ahly SC (EGY) average 16.3 shots (5.7 on target), 6.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. El Qanah FC score one and concede one a game over their last six, with one clean sheet. El Qanah FC average 9.5 shots (3.2 on target), 1.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 38% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 81% against the records' 50%.

The read. No firm call: AL Ahly SC (EGY) are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. AL Ahly SC (EGY) are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AL Ahly SC (EGY). Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 25%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: 2nd Half - AL Ahly SC (EGY) Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 4.5 Goals (AL Ahly SC (EGY) are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: AL Ahly SC (EGY) 1-1 El Qanah FC (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

AL AHLY SC (EGY) GOALS

AL Ahly SC (EGY) Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.09

ALA 6 of 6 (100%) · ELQ 5 of 6 (83%)79.4%

AL Ahly SC (EGY) scored in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · El Qanah FC conceded in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · AL Ahly SC (EGY): only games against sides at El Qanah FC's level · El Qanah FC: only games against sides at AL Ahly SC (EGY)'s level

EL QANAH FC GOALS

El Qanah FC Under 1.5 goalsIN CODES

1.11

ALA 5 of 6 (83%) · ELQ 5 of 6 (83%)80.8%

El Qanah FC scored under 1.5 in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · AL Ahly SC (EGY) conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · El Qanah FC: only games against sides at AL Ahly SC (EGY)'s level · AL Ahly SC (EGY): only games against sides at El Qanah FC's level

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.22

ALA 6 of 6 (100%) · ELQ 4 of 6 (67%)83.3%

AL Ahly SC (EGY): the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · El Qanah FC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · on half-time scores · AL Ahly SC (EGY): only games against sides at El Qanah FC's level · El Qanah FC: only games against sides at AL Ahly SC (EGY)'s level

CORNERS

Over 6.5 CornersPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ALA 6 of 6 (100%) · ELQ 5 of 6 (83%)91.7%

AL Ahly SC (EGY)'s games: over 6.5 corners in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · El Qanah FC's games: over 6.5 corners in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · AL Ahly SC (EGY): only games against sides at El Qanah FC's level · El Qanah FC: only games against sides at AL Ahly SC (EGY)'s level

CARDS

Over 1.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ALA 5 of 6 (83%) · ELQ 6 of 6 (100%)91.7%

AL Ahly SC (EGY)'s games: over 1.5 cards in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · El Qanah FC's games: over 1.5 cards in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · AL Ahly SC (EGY): only games against sides at El Qanah FC's level · El Qanah FC: only games against sides at AL Ahly SC (EGY)'s level

Left off the list: 2nd Half - AL Ahly SC (EGY) Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the numbers (50%) and the records (75%) are 25 points apart, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (AL Ahly SC (EGY) are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (AL Ahly SC (EGY) are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.8%

AL Ahly SC (EGY) goals →

El Qanah FC goals ↓

0-011%

1-013%

2-09%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-114%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-25%

1-26%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.1%

0-32%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.6%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-40.4%

1-40.5%

2-40.3%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 6

AL AHLY SC (EGY)WWWDWW2.67 PPG

EL QANAH FCWDDDLD1.17 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AL AHLY SC (EGY) HOMExEL QANAH FC AWAY

1.83SCORED A GAME1.000.50CONCEDED A GAME1.0067%CLEAN SHEETS17%0%FAILED TO SCORE17%6.83CORNERS A GAME1.831.17CARDS A GAME1.831.43xG1.020.69xG AGAINST1.73

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

AL AHLY SC (EGY) OR DRAW (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

23%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

AL AHLY SC (EGY) OR DRAW

84%

OKAY · 80/85

EL QANAH FC OR DRAW

38%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

TRENDS

AL Ahly SC (EGY) failed to score in 0% of their games.

El Qanah FC failed to score in 17% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAleague tablecornerscards