Match details. Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time. It is played at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai.
What's at stake. Sukhothai FC are 14th on 3 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Lamphun Warrior, 2 points clear of Rasi Salai United. A win would take them above Lamphun Warrior. Rasisalai United are 15th on 1 point after 4 games, 2 points behind Sukhothai FC, 1 point clear of Chonburi FC. A win would take them above Sukhothai FC.
Form. Sukhothai FC have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W. Rasisalai United have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L D.
The numbers. Sukhothai FC score 0.8 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Sukhothai FC average 9.7 shots (2.9 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Rasisalai United score two and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Rasisalai United average 11.0 shots (5.2 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
The case against. Rasisalai United's record still gives them 55% to win.
The read. Sukhothai FC or the draw. An open game. Rasisalai United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Rasisalai United. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Sukhothai FC Over 0.5 goals (Sukhothai FC's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sukhothai FC 2-1 Rasisalai United (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).