Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Allianz Arena, Munich. The referee is Davide Massa.
What's at stake. Bayern Munich are 12th on 4 points after 2 games, 2 points behind Borussia Dortmund, level on points with AS Roma. A win would take them above Borussia Dortmund. Arsenal are 8th on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Sporting CP, level on points with Real Madrid. A win would take them above Sporting CP.
Team news. Bayern Munich are without T. Buchmann (knee injury), J. Kimmich (personal reasons), J. Musiala (muscle injury), M. Olise (red card), T. Buchmann (knee injury), J. Kimmich (personal reasons). M. Olise is their top scorer. Arsenal are without P. Hincapie (ankle injury), W. Saliba (back injury), C. Tzolis (hamstring injury), P. Hincapie (ankle injury), W. Saliba (back injury), C. Tzolis (hamstring injury).
Form. Bayern Munich have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W. In this competition Bayern Munich have gone D W. Arsenal have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. In this competition Arsenal have gone W W.
The numbers. Bayern Munich score 3.6 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Bayern Munich average 24.6 shots (10.2 on target), 9.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 69% of the ball. Arsenal score 1.5 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with four clean sheets. Arsenal average 14.2 shots (5.6 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Bayern Munich have won four, drawn three and lost three. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. In the last four, Bayern Munich won one, one was drawn and Arsenal won two. The last time they met, on 26 Nov 2025, it finished Bayern Munich 1-3 Arsenal: Bayern Munich had 8 shots to 13, 60% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The case against. Bayern Munich without M. Olise (striker). Arsenal's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Bayern Munich or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bayern Munich the likelier winners; Bayern Munich are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 77% on the records (Bayern Munich: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10; Arsenal: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 6 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Bayern Munich Over 0.5 goals (Arsenal's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bayern Munich 2-1 Arsenal (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).