Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 2 - 8. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 17:15 Lagos time. It is played at Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria. The referee is J. Martinez.
What's at stake. Real Jaen CF are 8th on 12 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Hércules, 1 point clear of Huesca. A win would take them above Hércules. CF Rayo Majadahonda are 19th on 4 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Teruel, 2 points clear of Juventud Torremolinos. A win would take them above Teruel.
Form. Real Jaen CF have won three, drawn three and lost one of their last seven, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W W. In this competition Real Jaen CF have gone D D L W W D. CF Rayo Majadahonda have won one, drawn one and lost five of their last seven, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W D. In this competition CF Rayo Majadahonda have gone L L L W D L.
The numbers. Real Jaen CF score 1.6 and concede 1.1 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CF Rayo Majadahonda score 0.7 and concede 1.1 a game over their last seven, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal.
The read. Real Jaen CF to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Real Jaen CF the likelier winners; Real Jaen CF are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Jaen CF. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Real Jaen CF or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Real Jaen CF or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Real Jaen CF 1-0 CF Rayo Majadahonda (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).