Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 2 - 8. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 20:15 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
What's at stake. AD Alcorcon are 5th on 12 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Hércules, level on points with FC Cartagena. A win would take them above Hércules. SD Huesca are 9th on 10 points after 7 games, level on points with Antequera, level on points with Ibiza. A win would take them above Antequera.
Form. AD Alcorcon have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D. SD Huesca have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D D L.
The numbers. AD Alcorcon score 2.1 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. AD Alcorcon average 13.7 shots (6.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game. SD Huesca score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. SD Huesca average 6.6 shots (2.7 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings AD Alcorcon have won two, drawn four and lost four. One of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, AD Alcorcon won one, one was drawn and SD Huesca won two. The last time they met, on 3 Feb 2024, it finished AD Alcorcon 0-1 SD Huesca: AD Alcorcon had 8 shots to 11, 49% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make AD Alcorcon the likelier winners, but AD Alcorcon are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour SD Huesca.
The case against. SD Huesca's record still gives them 35% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. AD Alcorcon or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AD Alcorcon the likelier winners; AD Alcorcon are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour SD Huesca. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%. Nine of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.22, 75% on the records (AD Alcorcon: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 10; SD Huesca: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 7). Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AD Alcorcon 1-1 SD Huesca (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).