Match details. National League North, National League North - 12. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Buxton FC are 10th on 16 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Chorley, level on points with Bedford Town. A win would take them above Chorley. Worksop Town are 15th on 15 points after 11 games, level on points with Harborough Town, level on points with Brackley Town. A win would take them above Harborough Town.
Form. Buxton FC have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W. Worksop Town have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D D.
The numbers. Buxton FC score two and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Buxton FC average 5.2 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Worksop Town score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Worksop Town average 3.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Head to head. Buxton FC have won all of the last two meetings. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 6 Apr 2026, it finished Buxton FC 2-1 Worksop Town.
The case against. Worksop Town's record still gives them 46% to win.
The read. Buxton FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Buxton FC the likelier winners; Buxton FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Buxton FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 76% on the records (Buxton FC: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 8; Worksop Town: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Worksop Town Under 1.5 goals (Buxton FC's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Under 4.5 Goals (Buxton FC are a clear winner, no Unders); Buxton FC Over 1.5 goals (Buxton FC's own games don't back it (4 of 8)). Predicted score: Buxton FC 2-1 Worksop Town (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).