Burnley vs Wolves
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Turf Moor, Burnley. The referee is Lewis Smith.
What's at stake. Burnley are 21st on 8 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Norwich, level on points with Watford. A win would take them above Norwich. Wolves are 10th on 14 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Blackburn, level on points with Millwall. A win would take them above Blackburn.
Team news. Burnley are without E. Agyei (muscle injury), A. Ahmedhodzic (knock), A. Barnes (muscle injury), J. Beyer (hamstring injury), B. Humphreys (muscle injury), H. Mejbri (hamstring injury). Wolves are without A. Armstrong (back injury), R. Jimenez (knee injury), Y. Mosquera (ankle injury), B. Traore (injury), B. Traore (injury), R. Gomes (foot injury).
Form. Burnley have won one, drawn five and lost four of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L D. In this competition Burnley have gone D W D L D L. Wolves have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W.
The numbers. Burnley score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Burnley average 14.1 shots (4.1 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Wolves score 1.4 and concede 1.3 a game in their last seven away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Wolves average 10.4 shots (3.7 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Burnley have won four, drawn three and lost two. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Burnley won one, two were drawn and Wolves won one. The last time they met, on 24 May 2026, it finished Burnley 1-1 Wolves: Burnley had 16 shots to 16, 70% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.41, 73% on the records (Burnley: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Wolves: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 5 away). Backup: Over 2.5 Cards at 1.32. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Burnley 1-1 Wolves (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).