VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
Match details. Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Seacon Stadion De Koel, Venlo.
What's at stake. VVV Venlo are 2nd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with De Graafschap, level on points with Den Bosch. A win would take them above De Graafschap. Jong AZ Alkmaar are 19th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Jong Ajax, level on points with Jong Utrecht. A win would take them above Jong Ajax.
Form. VVV Venlo have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. Jong AZ Alkmaar have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L W.
The numbers. VVV Venlo score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. VVV Venlo average 16.8 shots (6.2 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Jong AZ Alkmaar score three and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Jong AZ Alkmaar average 15.5 shots (6.5 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings VVV Venlo have won one, drawn one and lost six. Six of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, VVV Venlo won one and Jong AZ Alkmaar won three. The last time they met, on 16 Jan 2026, it finished VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong AZ Alkmaar: VVV Venlo had 19 shots to 13, 50% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make VVV Venlo the likelier winners, but VVV Venlo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour VVV Venlo; the meetings favour Jong AZ Alkmaar.
The case against. Jong AZ Alkmaar's record still gives them 40% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. VVV Venlo or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make VVV Venlo the likelier winners; VVV Venlo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour VVV Venlo; the meetings favour Jong AZ Alkmaar. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%. Six of the last eight meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.29, 75% on the records (VVV Venlo: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Jong AZ Alkmaar: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: VVV Venlo or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); 2nd Half - Double Chance: VVV Venlo or Jong AZ Alkmaar (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: VVV Venlo 2-1 Jong AZ Alkmaar (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).