Eibar vs Mallorca
Match details. LaLiga 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:15 Lagos time. It is played at Ipurua Municipal Stadium, Eibar. The referee is Iosu Galech Apezteguia.
What's at stake. Eibar are 2nd on 21 points after 9 games, level on points with Almeria, 1 point clear of Castellón. A win would take them above Almeria. Mallorca are 4th on 17 points after 9 games, 3 points behind Castellón, 1 point clear of Sabadell. A win would take them level on points with Castellón.
Form. Eibar have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Mallorca have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W.
The numbers. Eibar score two and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Eibar average 9.1 shots (4.2 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 40% of the ball. Mallorca score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and four games without a goal. Mallorca average 11.2 shots (4.5 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Head to head. Mallorca have won all of the last three meetings. Three of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 5 Jan 2022, it finished Eibar 1-2 Mallorca: Eibar had 8 shots to 9, 48% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Eibar are the form side, but the meetings favour Mallorca: in the last three meetings, Mallorca won three. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%; three of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%. Not everything agrees on goals: three of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 73% on the records (Eibar: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 10; Mallorca: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Eibar 1-1 Mallorca (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).