Estudiantes de La Plata vs CR Flamengo RJ
Match details. CONMEBOL Libertadores, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Único Diego Armando Maradona, La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires. The referee is Juan Gabriel Benitez.
What's at stake. Estudiantes de La Plata are 2nd on 9 points after 6 games, 7 points behind Flamengo, 2 points clear of Independiente Medellin. CR Flamengo RJ are 1st on 16 points after 6 games, 7 points clear of Estudiantes L.P.. Estudiantes de La Plata have nothing left to play for. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Estudiantes de La Plata have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. In this competition Estudiantes de La Plata have gone W D W D W L. CR Flamengo RJ have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W.
The numbers. Estudiantes de La Plata score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Estudiantes de La Plata average 12.5 shots (4.6 on target), 5.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. CR Flamengo RJ score 1.7 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. CR Flamengo RJ average 15.3 shots (5.2 on target), 6.5 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Estudiantes de La Plata have won none, drawn one and lost two. One of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 21 May 2026, it finished Estudiantes de La Plata 0-1 CR Flamengo RJ: Estudiantes de La Plata had 8 shots to 13, 33% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%; two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. A knockout game (Semi-finals) with penalties if level, and CR Flamengo RJ are not clearly stronger. Estudiantes de La Plata's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. CR Flamengo RJ or the draw. Their goals for and against make CR Flamengo RJ the likelier winners; CR Flamengo RJ are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or CR Flamengo RJ at 1.25, 79% on the records (CR Flamengo RJ unbeaten in 9 of 10; Estudiantes de La Plata failed to win 3 of 5 at home). Full cover: Over 0.5 Goals at 1.13. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); CR Flamengo RJ or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Estudiantes de La Plata 1-1 CR Flamengo RJ (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).