Fluminense FC RJ vs SE Palmeiras SP
Match details. CONMEBOL Libertadores, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. The referee is Facundo Tello.
What's at stake. Fluminense FC RJ are 2nd on 8 points after 6 games, 8 points behind Independ. Rivadavia, 3 points clear of Bolívar. SE Palmeiras SP are 2nd on 11 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Cerro Porteno, 5 points clear of Sporting Cristal. A win would take them above Cerro Porteno. Fluminense FC RJ have nothing left to play for. SE Palmeiras SP have nothing left to play for. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Fluminense FC RJ have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. SE Palmeiras SP have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W.
The numbers. Fluminense FC RJ score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Fluminense FC RJ average 11.5 shots (5.0 on target), 1.5 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 62% of the ball. SE Palmeiras SP score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. SE Palmeiras SP average 18.8 shots (6.0 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Fluminense FC RJ have won four, drawn three and lost three. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Fluminense FC RJ won one, one was drawn and SE Palmeiras SP won two. The last time they met, on 15 Aug 2026, it finished Fluminense FC RJ 3-2 SE Palmeiras SP: Fluminense FC RJ had 17 shots to 15, 60% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Fluminense FC RJ the likelier winners, but SE Palmeiras SP are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: SE Palmeiras SP or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); SE Palmeiras SP or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Fluminense FC RJ Under 1.5 goals (Fluminense FC RJ's own games don't back it (3 of 7)). Predicted score: Fluminense FC RJ 1-1 SE Palmeiras SP (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).