INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

ROMROM

20:00Wed 14 Oct

REA

Roma vs Real Madrid

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. The referee is Francois Letexier.

What's at stake. Roma are 22nd on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Sabah FA, level on points with Shakhtar Donetsk. A win would take them above Sabah FA. Real Madrid are 16th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Liverpool, level on points with AEK Athens FC. A win would take them above Liverpool.

Team news. Roma are without M. Bah (knee injury), B. Cristante (knee injury), M. Svilar (toe injury), M. Bah (knee injury), B. Cristante (knee injury), M. Svilar (toe injury). M. Svilar is their first-choice keeper. Real Madrid are without R. Asencio (broken leg), Eder Militao (hamstring injury), F. Mendy (hip injury), Rodrygo (knee injury), R. Asencio (broken leg), Eder Militao (hamstring injury).

Form. Roma have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W D W. In this competition Roma have gone D. Real Madrid have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. In this competition Real Madrid have gone W.

The numbers. Roma score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. Roma average 17.4 shots (5.9 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Real Madrid average 17.2 shots (7.1 on target), 6.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Head to head. Real Madrid have won all of the last five meetings. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. In the last four, Real Madrid won four. The last time they met, on 27 Nov 2018, it finished Roma 0-2 Real Madrid: Roma had 17 shots to 11, 41% of the ball, three yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.

The case against. Roma's record still gives them 35% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.

The read. Real Madrid to win. A draw is live. An open game. Both teams' records favour Real Madrid; the meetings favour Real Madrid. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Real Madrid Over 0.5 goals (Roma's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Roma 1-2 Real Madrid (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Real Madrid or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ROM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 9 of 10 (90%)86.9%

Real Madrid: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Roma: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 87% · H2H 5 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

Real Madrid win or both teams scorePAGE ONLY

1.12

ROM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 4 of 10 (40%)72%

Real Madrid: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Roma: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · H2H 5 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

Real Madrid or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.20

ROM 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 8 of 10 (80%)70%

Real Madrid scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Roma trailed or failed to win in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues)

Real Madrid 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

1.40

ROM 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 8 of 10 (80%)60%

Real Madrid scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Roma trailed in 2 of 10 (last 10, all venues)

Real Madrid or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 83%

1.21

ROM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 5 of 10 (50%)58.6%

Real Madrid: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Roma: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · H2H 5 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

Real Madrid or draw and over 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.44

ROM 2 of 10 (20%) · REA 7 of 10 (70%)57.8%

Roma: the bet landed in 2 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 43% · H2H 5 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

ROM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 8 of 10 (80%)75%

Roma: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 5 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

ROMA GOALS

Roma Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.27

ROM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 8 of 10 (80%)60.2%

Roma scored in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · H2H 1 of 5 · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.15

ROM 9 of 10 (90%) · REA 10 of 10 (100%)96.3%

Roma: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · H2H 5 of 5 · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.14

ROM 6 of 8 (75%) · REA 6 of 8 (75%)75.9%

Roma's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Real Madrid's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Real Madrid Over 0.5 goals (Roma's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 8.9%

Roma goals →

Real Madrid goals ↓

0-08%

1-08%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.2%

0-19%

1-113%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.9%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-34%

1-34%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-42%

2-40.9%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.4%

1-50.5%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

ROMAWWWWWWDWDD2.40 PPG

REAL MADRIDWWWWLWWWLW2.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ROMA HOMExREAL MADRID AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME2.500.60CONCEDED A GAME1.1060%CLEAN SHEETS20%17%FAILED TO SCORE12%5.00CORNERS A GAME6.622.00CARDS A GAME2.622.54xG2.460.87xG AGAINST1.02

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

2.33POINTS A GAME2.25+1.83GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.38+5.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.62.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.86LEAGUE GAMES8

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

80%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

74%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

89%

OKAY · 85/90

ROMA OR DRAW

75%

NO · 80/85

REAL MADRID OR DRAW

43%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ROMAxREAL MADRID

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME1.800.60CONCEDED A GAME1.202.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE60%3.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.28.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 5

ROMA 0 · 0%DRAW 0REAL MADRID 5 · 100%

1 of 5BOTH TEAMS SCORED

5 of 5OVER 1.5 GOALS

2 of 5OVER 2.5 GOALS

0 of 5OVER 3.5 GOALS

2016-02-17Roma 0 – 2 Real Madrid

2016-03-08Roma 0 – 2 Real Madrid

2018-08-08Roma 1 – 2 Real Madrid

2018-09-19Roma 0 – 3 Real Madrid

2018-11-27Roma 0 – 2 Real Madrid

TEAM NEWS

ROMA

Out: M. Bah (Knee Injury), B. Cristante (Knee Injury), M. Svilar (Toe Injury), M. Bah (Knee Injury), B. Cristante (Knee Injury), M. Svilar (Toe Injury)

REAL MADRID

Out: R. Asencio (Broken Leg), Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury), F. Mendy (Hip Injury), Rodrygo (Knee Injury), R. Asencio (Broken Leg), Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury)

TRENDS

Roma have scored in 90% of their games.

Real Madrid have scored in 90% of their games.

Roma kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards