Betis vs Porto
Match details. Champions League, League Stage - 2, kicks off Wed 14 Oct at 20:00 Lagos time. The match is at Estadio de la Cartuja in Seville with Clement Turpin refereeing.
What's at stake. Betis sit 12th on 3 points after one game, level on points with Aston Villa and Atletico Madrid. A win would lift them above Aston Villa. Porto sit 29th on 0 points after one game, level on points with Inter and Slavia Praha. A win would move them above Inter.
Team news. Betis miss J. Firpo (groin), I. Losada (inactive) and A. Ruibal (knee). Porto are without J. Bednarek (red card), Gabriel Mec and D. Prpic (off roster), V. Sousa (leg) and William Gomes (ankle). Bednarek is their centre-back.
Form. Betis have eight wins, one draw and one loss in their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five are W D W W W and they have a win in this competition. Porto have nine wins, no draws and one loss in their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five are W W W L W and they have a loss in this competition.
The numbers. Betis score two and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, keeping three clean sheets. They average 18.0 shots (6.2 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game with 55% possession. Porto score 2.1 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. They average 15.8 shots (6.0 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.1 cards a game with 53% possession.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Porto are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Betis. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Betis 1-1 Porto (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).