Marseille vs Le Havre
Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:15 Lagos time. It is played at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. The referee is Clement Turpin.
What's at stake. Marseille are 10th on 9 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Nice, level on points with Stade Brestois 29. A win would take them above Nice. Le Havre are 18th on 2 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Estac Troyes. A win would take them above Estac Troyes.
Team news. Marseille are without D. Cornelius (hip injury), D. Cornelius (hip injury). Le Havre are without E. Jelert (thigh injury), F. Mambimbi (achilles tendon injury), L. Mpasi-Nzau (achilles tendon injury), T. Pembele (muscle injury), A. Toure (knee injury), S. Zagadou (knee injury).
Form. Marseille have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. Le Havre have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.
The numbers. Marseille score 1.5 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Marseille average 11.3 shots (4.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. Le Havre score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Le Havre average 9.6 shots (4.0 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. Marseille have won all of the last six meetings. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Marseille won four. The last time they met, on 10 May 2026, it finished Marseille 1-0 Le Havre: Marseille had 8 shots to 10, 50% of the ball, six yellow cards.
The case against. Le Havre's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Marseille to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Marseille the likelier winners; Marseille are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Marseille; the meetings favour Marseille. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%. Five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Marseille to win at 1.57, 88% on the records (the tipsters read Marseille as a clear winner (4 scores) and Marseille are 1.0 points a game better this season - 21 of 24 games like this were won). Leave: Marseille or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (Marseille are a clear winner, no Unders); Le Havre Under 1.5 goals (Marseille's own games don't back it (3 of 7)). Predicted score: Marseille 2-1 Le Havre (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).