Paderborn vs Hamburger SV
Match details. Paderborn host Hamburger SV at Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Paderborn are 16th on 5 points after 6 games, level on points with FC Schalke 04 and Union Berlin. A win would take them above FC Schalke 04. Hamburger SV are 9th on 9 points after 6 games, level on points with Werder Bremen and 1 point clear of FC Augsburg. A win would take them above Werder Bremen.
Form. Paderborn have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L L. Hamburger SV have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L.
The numbers. Paderborn score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal, averaging 12.7 shots (4.0 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Hamburger SV score 1.5 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal, averaging 9.8 shots (4.3 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Paderborn have won four, drawn two and lost four. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. In the last four, Paderborn won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 2 Mar 2025, it finished Paderborn 2-0 Hamburger SV: Paderborn had 15 shots to 15, 40% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Hamburger SV's record still gives them 35% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Paderborn or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. The meetings favour Paderborn, while their records put over 2.5 goals at 54% and eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Paderborn Over 0.5 goals (Paderborn's own games don't back it (3 of 8)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Paderborn 2-1 Hamburger SV (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).