Match details. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time. It is played at RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne. The referee is Harm Osmers.
What's at stake. Cologne are 12th on 7 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 point clear of 1899 Hoffenheim. A win would take them above Eintracht Frankfurt. Schalke are 15th on 5 points after 6 games, 1 point behind VfB Stuttgart, level on points with SC Paderborn 07. A win would take them above VfB Stuttgart.
Team news. Cologne are without T. Dallinga (knee injury), T. Hubers (knee injury), E. Skhiri (ankle injury), R. van den Berg (muscle injury), R. Ache (thigh injury), T. Dallinga (knee injury). Schalke are without K. Karaman (muscle injury), D. Ljubicic (knee injury), R. Schallenberg (leg injury), M. Sylla (leg injury), M. Wober (muscle injury), K. Karaman (muscle injury).
Form. Cologne have won two, drawn one and lost three of their last six, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L. Schalke have won one, drawn two and lost three of their last six, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W D.
The numbers. Cologne score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game over their last six, with no clean sheets. Cologne average 16.2 shots (5.3 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Schalke score 0.7 and concede 1.2 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Schalke average 10.2 shots (3.5 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 40% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Cologne have won six, drawn two and lost none. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Cologne won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 9 Feb 2025, it finished Cologne 1-0 Schalke: Cologne had 12 shots to 11, 37% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The case against. Schalke's record still gives them 25% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Cologne to win. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Cologne the likelier winners; Cologne are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cologne; the meetings favour Cologne. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Cologne 2-1 Schalke (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).