Brest vs Nice
Match details. Ligue 1. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Brest have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L W. Nice have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L D.
The numbers. Brest score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Nice score 0.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Brest the likelier winners, but Nice are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The case against. Nice's record still gives them 31% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Brest or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Brest the likelier winners; Nice are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Brest or Draw & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Brest 2-1 Nice (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).