BFC Daugavpils vs FK Auda Riga
Match details. Virsliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is Mon 19 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Celtnieks, Daugavpils.
What's at stake. BFC Daugavpils are 5th on 42 points after 32 games, 4 points behind FK Liepaja, 4 points clear of Super Nova. FK Auda Riga are 3rd on 64 points after 32 games, 15 points behind Riga, 18 points clear of FK Liepaja. BFC Daugavpils have nothing left to play for. FK Auda Riga have nothing left to play for.
Form. BFC Daugavpils have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D L. In this competition BFC Daugavpils have gone W D L D L D. FK Auda Riga have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. In this competition FK Auda Riga have gone W D W D W D.
The numbers. BFC Daugavpils score 1.2 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. BFC Daugavpils average 14.7 shots (4.4 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. FK Auda Riga score 1.5 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings BFC Daugavpils have won four, drawn one and lost four. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, BFC Daugavpils won two and FK Auda Riga won two. The last time they met, on 26 Jul 2026, it finished BFC Daugavpils 0-1 FK Auda Riga: BFC Daugavpils had 7 shots to 11, 43% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The case against. BFC Daugavpils's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. FK Auda Riga to win. A tight game. FK Auda Riga are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FK Auda Riga. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%. Five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.46, 76% on the records (BFC Daugavpils: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10; FK Auda Riga: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 0-1 FK Auda Riga (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).