Match details. AFC Champions League Two, Group Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Gangneung Stadium.
What's at stake. Gangwon FC are 2nd on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Phnom Penh Crown, level on points with Kitchee. A win would take them above Phnom Penh Crown. Phnom Penh Crown FC are 1st on 3 points after 1 game, 2 points clear of Gangwon FC.
Form. Gangwon FC have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D D. In this competition Gangwon FC have gone D. Phnom Penh Crown FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W. In this competition Phnom Penh Crown FC have gone W.
The numbers. Gangwon FC score 0.8 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Gangwon FC average 12.8 shots (4.5 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Phnom Penh Crown FC score 0.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Phnom Penh Crown FC average 11.5 shots (3.2 on target), 6.6 corners and 2.9 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.34, 79% on the records (Gangwon FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Phnom Penh Crown FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Gangwon FC 1-0 Phnom Penh Crown FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).