Match details. Aston Villa host Man City at Villa Park in Birmingham for matchday 8 of the Premier League. Kick-off is set for 12:30 Lagos time on Sat 24 Oct.
What's at stake. Aston Villa sit 12th on 8 points after 7 games, level on points with Newcastle and 1 point clear of Manchester United. A win would take them above Newcastle. Man City are 1st on 21 points after 7 games, 3 points clear of Arsenal.
Form. Aston Villa have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, taking 2.0 points a game. Their last five results read W W W D W. Man City have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, picking up 2.7 points a game. Their last five show W W L W W.
The numbers. Villa score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last five at home, keeping one clean sheet. They average 13.4 shots (5.6 on target), 3.1 corners and 2.2 cards with 47% of the ball. Man City score 3.1 and concede 1.1 over their last ten with five clean sheets. They average 14.8 shots (5.8 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.5 cards with 65% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Aston Villa have won four, drawn one and lost five. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. Aston Villa won three of the last four. They last met on 24 May 2026, finishing Aston Villa 2-1 Man City with Villa taking 12 shots to 16, 47% of the ball, and one yellow card.
The case against. Aston Villa's record still gives them a 29% chance to win.
The read. Man City to win. An open game. Man City are the stronger side on form and the table, and both teams' records favour Man City. Their goals for and against point to an open game, with their records putting over 2.5 goals at 60%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); 1X2 - 2UP: Man City (the signs point different ways); Man City Over 1.5 goals (Aston Villa's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Aston Villa 1-2 Man City (9% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Man City or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
AST 6 of 6 (100%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)89.6%
Man City: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level
Man City win or both teams scoreIN CODES
1.11
AST 6 of 6 (100%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)89.6%
Man City: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level
Man City or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.13
AST 5 of 5 (100%) · MAN 6 of 6 (100%)88.9%
Man City scored first 5 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa trailed or failed to win in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level
Double Chance: Draw or Man CityPAGE ONLY
1.19
AST 6 of 6 (100%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)84.2%
Man City unbeaten in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa failed to win 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 2 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level
Man City or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.23
AST 6 of 6 (100%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)74.6%
Man City: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level
Man City to WinLEANPAGE ONLY
1.65
AST 6 of 6 (100%) · MAN 2 of 6 (33%)56.2%
Man City won 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa lost 2 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · H2H 2 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level
GOALS
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.54
AST 3 of 6 (50%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)52%
Aston Villa: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Man City: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 58% · H2H 4 of 6 · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level
ASTON VILLA GOALS
Aston Villa Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.43
AST 4 of 6 (67%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)61.4%
Aston Villa scored under 1.5 in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Man City conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · H2H 4 of 6 · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level
MAN CITY GOALS
Man City Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.13
AST 6 of 6 (100%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)89.3%
Man City scored in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa conceded in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.17
AST 4 of 6 (67%) · MAN 5 of 6 (83%)77.1%
Aston Villa: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Man City: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.30
AST 3 of 6 (50%) · MAN 4 of 6 (67%)64.6%
Aston Villa: the bet landed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Man City: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 58% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Man City's level · Man City: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level
Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); 1X2 - 2UP: Man City (the numbers (44%) and the records (69%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Man City Over 1.5 goals (Aston Villa's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Man City 1UP (the numbers (59%) and the records (83%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–29%
Aston Villa goals →
Man City goals ↓
0-07%
1-07%
2-05%
3-02%
4-00.7%
5-00.2%
0-18%
1-112%
2-18%
3-13%
4-11%
5-10.3%
0-27%
1-29%
2-26%
3-23%
4-20.8%
5-20.2%
0-34%
1-35%
2-33%
3-31%
4-30.4%
5-30.1%
0-41%
1-42%
2-41%
3-40.5%
4-40.2%
5-40.0%
0-50.4%
1-50.6%
2-50.4%
3-50.2%
4-50.1%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).
FORM · LAST 10
ASTON VILLAWWWDWWLWDL2.00 PPG
MAN CITYWWLWWWWWWW2.70 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ASTON VILLA HOMExMAN CITY AWAY
1.00SCORED A GAME2.711.57CONCEDED A GAME1.0030%CLEAN SHEETS50%43%FAILED TO SCORE0%3.14CORNERS A GAME5.572.20CARDS A GAME1.501.14xG2.211.66xG AGAINST1.42
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
718 OF 767
NO PRICE YET
The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.14POINTS A GAME3.00-0.57GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.71-2.7SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.31.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME3.07LEAGUE GAMES7
Man City: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).
MAN CITY 0:2 HANDICAP
–
54 OF 60
NO PRICE YET
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
60%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
67%
OKAY · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
71%
NO · 85/90
ASTON VILLA OR DRAW
25%
NO · 80/85
MAN CITY OR DRAW
88%
VERY GOOD · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
ASTON VILLAxMAN CITY
5GAMES51.40SCORED A GAME2.601.20CONCEDED A GAME1.002.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE40%5.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.27.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.8
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
ASTON VILLA 4 · 40%DRAW 1MAN CITY 5 · 50%
8 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
8 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
7 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
3 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2021-12-01Aston Villa 1 – 2 Man City
2022-05-22Aston Villa 2 – 3 Man City
2022-09-03Aston Villa 1 – 1 Man City
2023-02-12Aston Villa 1 – 3 Man City
2023-12-06Aston Villa 1 – 0 Man City
2024-04-03Aston Villa 1 – 4 Man City
2024-12-21Aston Villa 2 – 1 Man City
2025-04-22Aston Villa 1 – 2 Man City
TRENDS
Aston Villa have scored in 70% of their games.
Man City have scored in 100% of their games.
Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
Man City kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards