Chelsea vs Tottenham
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at Stamford Bridge, London.
What's at stake. Chelsea are 4th on 13 points after 7 games, 3 points behind Brighton, 1 point clear of Liverpool. A win would take them level on points with Brighton. Tottenham are 20th on 3 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Sunderland. A win would take them above Sunderland.
Form. Chelsea have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D W. Tottenham have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L D.
The numbers. Chelsea score 3.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Chelsea average 13.0 shots (5.1 on target), 5.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Tottenham score 1.3 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Tottenham average 12.7 shots (4.5 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Chelsea have won seven, drawn one and lost one. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Chelsea won four. The last time they met, on 19 May 2026, it finished Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham: Chelsea had 9 shots to 9, 44% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%; five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Tottenham's record still gives them 29% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Chelsea to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Chelsea the likelier winners; Chelsea are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Chelsea; the meetings favour Chelsea. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Chelsea to win at 1.87, 88% on the records (the tipsters read Chelsea as a clear winner (5 scores) and Chelsea are 1.0 points a game better this season - 21 of 24 games like this were won). Backup: Chelsea Over 0.5 Goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Chelsea are a clear winner, no Unders); Tottenham Under 1.5 goals (Chelsea's own games don't back it (2 of 8)); Chelsea Over 1.5 goals (Tottenham's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).