UD Santarem vs Gil Vicente Barcelos
Match details. This is a Taca de Portugal Round of 64 tie. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time at Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem.
What's at stake. It's a single match and it goes to penalties if level.
Form. UD Santarem have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five are W W W L L. Gil Vicente Barcelos have the same record over ten and 1.2 points a game, with a recent run of W D L L D.
The numbers. At home UD Santarem average 2.2 goals for and 0.8 against in their last five, keeping two clean sheets. They take 11.4 shots (4.3 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.1 cards a game. Away Gil Vicente average 0.4 goals for and 1.2 against in five, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. They have 13.4 shots (3.4 on target), 3.2 corners, 2.0 cards a game and 52% possession.
Where it pulls both ways. The odds board makes it 14% against the records' 39%.
The read. No firm call: UD Santarem are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make UD Santarem the likelier winners; UD Santarem are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: UD Santarem 1-0 Gil Vicente Barcelos (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).