Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama

Match details. Jp1. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time.

Form. Nagoya Grampus have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L. Fagiano Okayama have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W.

The numbers. Nagoya Grampus score 1.3 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Nagoya Grampus average 10.5 shots (3.3 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 60% of the ball. Fagiano Okayama score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Fagiano Okayama average 10.2 shots (3.0 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last eight meetings Nagoya Grampus have won five, drawn three and lost none. One of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Nagoya Grampus won two and two were drawn.

Where it pulls both ways. Fagiano Okayama are the form side, but the meetings favour Nagoya Grampus: in the last eight meetings, Nagoya Grampus won five and three were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%; seven of the last eight meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Seven of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Fagiano Okayama (14% chance).