Atletico Madrid vs Man Utd
Match details. This is a UEFA Champions League League Stage - 2 tie. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid. The referee is Glenn Nyberg.
What's at stake. Atletico Madrid sit 26th on 0 points after one game, level with Inter and Napoli. A win would lift them above Inter. Man Utd are 4th on 3 points after one game, level with Barcelona and Como, and a win would move them above Barcelona.
Team news. Man Utd are missing K. Darlow, P. Dorgu, T. Heaton, K. Mainoo, N. Mazraoui and B. Sesko through injuries.
Form. Atletico have six wins, one draw and three losses in their last ten, 1.9 points a game, with a recent run of W W W W L. In this competition they have gone L. Man Utd have four wins, three draws and three losses in their last ten, 1.5 points a game, with a recent run of D D L L W. In this competition they have gone W.
The numbers. Atletico score two and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, keeping three clean sheets. They average 16.9 shots (6.2 on target), 5.5 corners, 2.0 cards and hold 59% of the ball. Man Utd score 2.1 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 19.8 shots (5.8 on target), 6.4 corners, 1.4 cards and hold 56% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Atletico have won one and drawn one, losing none. Neither game went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last meeting on 15 Mar 2022 ended Atletico 1-0 Man Utd, with Atletico having 8 shots to 11, 40% possession and four yellow cards.
The case against. Man Utd's record still gives them 34% to win.
The read. Atletico Madrid to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Atletico Madrid the likelier winners; Atletico Madrid are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atletico Madrid. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 73%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.14, 77% on the records (Atletico Madrid: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; Man Utd: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 goals (Man Utd's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Atletico Madrid are a clear winner, no Unders); Man Utd Under 1.5 goals (Man Utd's own games don't back it (4 of 10)). Predicted score: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Man Utd (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).