Liverpool vs Brighton
Match details. Anfield plays host to this Premier League clash on Sun 25 Oct, kicking off at 15:00 Lagos time. It is Regular Season - 8, and Samuel Barrott takes the whistle.
What's at stake. Liverpool sit 5th on 12 points after 7 games. They are 1 point behind Chelsea and 1 point clear of Aston Villa, so a win takes them above Chelsea. Brighton are 3rd on 16 points after 7 games, sitting 5 points behind Arsenal and 3 points clear of Chelsea.
Team news. Liverpool are without C. Bradley, H. Ekitike, J. Frimpong, G. Leoni, A. Nallo and D. Szoboszlai through injury. Brighton are missing F. Azeez, E. Ferguson, Y. Minteh, K. Mitoma, S. Tzimas and M. Wieffer.
Form. Liverpool have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, averaging 2.3 points a game. Their last five read W W W L W. Brighton match that overall record with seven wins, two draws and one defeat in ten, also taking 2.3 points a game, with a recent run of D W W W W.
The numbers. Liverpool score 1.8 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, keeping one clean sheet and failing to score twice. They average 14.4 shots, 5.5 on target, 5.8 corners and 2.1 cards with 56% of the ball. Brighton score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away with three clean sheets, averaging 17.1 shots, 6.3 on target, 6.5 corners and 2.0 cards with 60% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings, Liverpool have won five, drawn one and lost four. Nine of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, Liverpool won two and Brighton won two, including a 1-2 Brighton victory on 21 Mar 2026 where Liverpool had 12 shots to 16, 53% possession and ten yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways for me. Their goals for and against make Liverpool the likelier winners, but Brighton are the stronger side on form and the table.
The case against. Brighton's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. Liverpool or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Liverpool the likelier winners and point to an open game, but Brighton are stronger on form and the table, while their records put over 2.5 goals at 66% with nine of the last ten meetings going over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 79% on the records (Liverpool: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6; Brighton: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 7). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).