Hull City vs Brentford

Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at MKM Stadium, Hull. The referee is Robert Jones.

What's at stake. Hull City are 11th on 9 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Ipswich, level on points with Tottenham. A win would take them above Ipswich. Brentford are 7th on 10 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Aston Villa, level on points with Leeds. A win would take them above Aston Villa.

Team news. Hull City are without I. Ansah (back injury), J. Butland (arm injury), D. Gyabi (groin injury), C. Hughes (groin injury), E. Matazo (knee injury), N. Mendy (groin injury). Brentford are without J. Dasilva (muscle injury), K. Furo (surgery), V. Janelt (red card), A. Milambo (knock), Y. Yarmolyuk (red card), J. Dasilva (muscle injury).

Form. Hull City have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D L. Brentford have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W D.

The numbers. Hull City score one and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Hull City average 9.5 shots (3.5 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 31% of the ball. Brentford score 2.3 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. Brentford average 13.6 shots (4.7 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last eight meetings Hull City have won four, drawn two and lost two. Three of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Hull City won one, one was drawn and Brentford won two. The last time they met, on 1 Feb 2020, it finished Hull City 1-5 Brentford: Hull City had 10 shots to 25, 34% of the ball, one yellow card.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 57% against the records' 28%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.

The read. No firm call: Brentford are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Brentford the likelier winners; Brentford are the stronger side on form and the table. Five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.53, 70% on the records (Hull City: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; Brentford: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Hull City 1-1 Brentford (12% chance).