INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

NNNEC

20:00Thu 15 Oct

PFC

NEC Nijmegen vs PFC Levski Sofia

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. The referee is Aliyar Agayev.

What's at stake. NEC Nijmegen are 36th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Lech Poznan. A win would take them above Lech Poznan. PFC Levski Sofia are 27th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with AZ Alkmaar, level on points with Celtic. A win would take them above AZ Alkmaar.

Team news. NEC Nijmegen are without I. Hansen-Aaroen (off the roster), E. Mor (groin injury), B. Nuytinck (ankle injury), P. Sandler (injury), A. Tahaui (off the roster), D. Geiger (inactive). PFC Levski Sofia are without P. Hristov (off the roster), O. Kamdem (off the roster), R. Kirilov (knee injury), A. Mitkov (inactive), M. Sangare (off the roster), A. Bouras (muscle injury).

Form. NEC Nijmegen have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L D. In this competition NEC Nijmegen have gone L. PFC Levski Sofia have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W. In this competition PFC Levski Sofia have gone L.

The numbers. NEC Nijmegen score 1.3 and concede 2.3 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. NEC Nijmegen average 10.0 shots (2.8 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. PFC Levski Sofia score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. PFC Levski Sofia average 12.0 shots (2.5 on target), 4.0 corners and 0.9 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.

The case against. PFC Levski Sofia's record still gives them 54% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.

The read. NEC Nijmegen or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make PFC Levski Sofia the likelier winners; PFC Levski Sofia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PFC Levski Sofia.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); NEC Nijmegen or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: NEC Nijmegen 1-1 PFC Levski Sofia (11% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.17

NEC 8 of 10 (80%) · PFC 5 of 5 (100%)91.9%

NEC Nijmegen: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · PFC Levski Sofia: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

NEC NIJMEGEN GOALS

NEC Nijmegen Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.19

NEC 7 of 10 (70%) · PFC 3 of 5 (60%)64.3%

NEC Nijmegen scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · PFC Levski Sofia conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 60% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.23

NEC 8 of 10 (80%) · PFC 4 of 5 (80%)78.7%

NEC Nijmegen: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · PFC Levski Sofia: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); NEC Nijmegen or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); NEC Nijmegen or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 10.7%

NEC Nijmegen goals →

PFC Levski Sofia goals ↓

0-05%

1-05%

2-03%

3-01%

4-00.4%

5-00.1%

0-17%

1-111%

2-16%

3-13%

4-10.8%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-210%

2-26%

3-23%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-35%

1-36%

2-34%

3-32%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-43%

2-42%

3-40.8%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.9%

1-51%

2-50.7%

3-50.3%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

NEC NIJMEGENWLLWLDLLDD0.90 PPG

PFC LEVSKI SOFIADWLWWWLDLW1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

NEC NIJMEGEN HOMExPFC LEVSKI SOFIA AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME1.602.30CONCEDED A GAME1.100%CLEAN SHEETS50%12%FAILED TO SCORE10%3.38CORNERS A GAME4.002.00CARDS A GAME0.86

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.12POINTS A GAME2.60-0.12GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.20-2.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.60.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.68LEAGUE GAMES5

PFC Levski Sofia: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

PFC LEVSKI SOFIA 0:2 HANDICAP

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373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

85%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

78%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

72%

NO · 85/90

NEC NIJMEGEN OR DRAW

38%

NO · 80/85

PFC LEVSKI SOFIA OR DRAW

93%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

NEC NIJMEGENxPFC LEVSKI SOFIA

5GAMES51.00SCORED A GAME1.602.00CONCEDED A GAME0.403.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.0100%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%80%BOTH SCORE40%3.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.27.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

NEC NIJMEGEN

Out: I. Hansen-Aaroen (Off the roster), E. Mor (Groin Injury), B. Nuytinck (Ankle Injury), P. Sandler (Injury), A. Tahaui (Off the roster), D. Geiger (Inactive)

PFC LEVSKI SOFIA

Out: P. Hristov (Off the roster), O. Kamdem (Off the roster), R. Kirilov (Knee Injury), A. Mitkov (Inactive), M. Sangare (Off the roster), A. Bouras (Muscle Injury)

TRENDS

NEC Nijmegen have scored in 70% of their games.

PFC Levski Sofia have scored in 60% of their games.

NEC Nijmegen kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

PFC Levski Sofia kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards