Swansea City vs West Ham
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Swansea.com Stadium. The referee is Josh Smith.
What's at stake. Swansea City are 1st on 23 points after 10 games, 2 points clear of Middlesbrough. West Ham are 3rd on 19 points after 10 games, 2 points behind Middlesbrough, 2 points clear of Birmingham. A win would take them above Middlesbrough.
Team news. Swansea City are without C. Burgess (achilles tendon injury), S. Eustaquio (shoulder injury), J. Key (muscle injury), F. Lissah (yellow cards), C. Burgess (achilles tendon injury), S. Eustaquio (shoulder injury). West Ham are without K. Lamadrid (injury), K. Lamadrid (injury).
Form. Swansea City have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. West Ham have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D L W.
The numbers. Swansea City score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Swansea City average 13.2 shots (5.6 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. West Ham score 3.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. West Ham average 16.8 shots (6.6 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 59% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Swansea City have won two, drawn three and lost five. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Swansea City won one and West Ham won three. The last time they met, on 3 Mar 2018, it finished Swansea City 4-1 West Ham: Swansea City had 9 shots to 7, 45% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Swansea City's record still gives them 32% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. West Ham to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make West Ham the likelier winners; the meetings favour West Ham. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: West Ham Over 0.5 goals (Swansea City's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Swansea City 1-2 West Ham (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).