Derby County vs Stoke City
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Pride Park Stadium, Derby. The referee is Oliver Langford.
What's at stake. Derby County are 23rd on 6 points after 10 games, 2 points behind Watford, 2 points clear of Preston. A win would take them above Watford. Stoke City are 8th on 16 points after 10 games, level on points with Southampton, 1 point clear of Blackburn. A win would take them above Southampton.
Team news. Derby County are without P. Agyemang (achilles tendon injury), E. Cashin (inactive), M. Clarke (calf injury), C. Forsyth (knee injury), D. Murkin (hamstring injury), C. Taylor (injury). Stoke City are without A. Ampah (inactive), A. Cresswell (knee injury), S. Gallagher (inactive), S. Ingelsson (muscle injury), A. Ampah (inactive), A. Cresswell (knee injury).
Form. Derby County have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L L. Stoke City have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.
The numbers. Derby County score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Derby County average 11.6 shots (3.5 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Stoke City score 1.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Stoke City average 11.6 shots (4.1 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Derby County have won four, drawn two and lost three. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Derby County won one, one was drawn and Stoke City won two. The last time they met, on 6 Apr 2026, it finished Derby County 2-0 Stoke City: Derby County had 20 shots to 7, 52% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Derby County's record still gives them 28% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%. Not everything agrees on goals: five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Stoke City to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Stoke City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Stoke City. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.35, 73% on the records (Derby County: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Stoke City: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Stoke City or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Stoke City or Draw (1UP) (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Derby County 0-1 Stoke City (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).