Millwall FC vs Lincoln City
Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 Lagos time. It is played at The Den, London. The referee is Ruebyn Ricardo.
What's at stake. Millwall FC are 11th on 14 points after 10 games, level on points with Wolves, level on points with Bristol City. A win would take them above Wolves. Lincoln City are 18th on 11 points after 10 games, level on points with Wrexham, 1 point clear of Cardiff. A win would take them above Wrexham.
Team news. Millwall FC are without J. Coburn (muscle injury), C. De Norre (muscle injury), R. Esse (ankle injury), M. Ivanovic (hamstring injury), L. Jensen (muscle injury), M. Luongo (knee injury). Lincoln City are without T. Darikwa (knee injury), T. Hamer (red card), C. McGrandles (red card), M. Melia (thigh injury), R. Hackett-Fairchild (inactive), T. Darikwa (knee injury).
Form. Millwall FC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L. Lincoln City have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W.
The numbers. Millwall FC score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Millwall FC average 12.0 shots (3.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. Lincoln City score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Lincoln City average 11.6 shots (2.6 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 36% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 59% against the records' 31%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The read. No firm call: Millwall FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Millwall FC the likelier winners; Millwall FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Millwall FC are a clear winner, no Unders); Lincoln City Under 1.5 goals (Millwall FC's own games don't back it (3 of 8)); Under 4.5 Goals (Millwall FC are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Millwall FC 1-1 Lincoln City (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).