INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

ALKALK

17:45Thu 15 Oct

HAP

Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）. The referee is Radoslav Gidzhenov.

What's at stake. Alkmaar are 26th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Celta Vigo, level on points with Levski Sofia. A win would take them above Celta Vigo. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC are 20th on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Dinamo Zagreb, 1 point clear of Jagiellonia. A win would take them above Dinamo Zagreb.

Team news. Alkmaar are without J. Hornkamp (injury), S. Resink (knee injury), K. Smit (injury), H. Verhulst (off the roster), J. Hornkamp (injury), S. Resink (knee injury). Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC are without D. Biton (heart problems), Y. Stoyanov (off the roster), M. Baltaxa (inactive), Y. Malede (inactive), D. Biton (heart problems), Y. Stoyanov (off the roster).

Form. Alkmaar have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D W. In this competition Alkmaar have gone L. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W L. In this competition Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC have gone D.

The numbers. Alkmaar score 2.2 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Alkmaar average 18.5 shots (6.6 on target), 7.8 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC average 14.9 shots (4.8 on target), 5.4 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 62% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Alkmaar the likelier winners, but Alkmaar are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.

The case against. Alkmaar's record still gives them 45% to win.

The read. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC or the draw. Their goals for and against make Alkmaar the likelier winners; Alkmaar are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Alkmaar 1-1 Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win or both teams scorePAGE ONLY

1.66

ALK 4 of 5 (80%) · HAP 6 of 10 (60%)73.5%

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · Alkmaar: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 69% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

ALK 9 of 10 (90%) · HAP 5 of 5 (100%)95.6%

Alkmaar: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.32

ALK 7 of 10 (70%) · HAP 5 of 5 (100%)85.5%

Alkmaar: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

HAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC GOALS

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC Over 0.5 goalsPAGE ONLY

1.69

ALK 4 of 5 (80%) · HAP 6 of 10 (60%)73.5%

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC scored in 4 of 5 away · Alkmaar conceded in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 69% · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsIN CODES

1.19

ALK 5 of 8 (62%) · HAP 7 of 8 (88%)73.9%

Alkmaar's games: over 2.5 cards in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC's games: over 2.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · each game weighed by who it was against

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.2%

Alkmaar goals →

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC goals ↓

0-07%

1-09%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-16%

1-112%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-27%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.5%

5-30.2%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.6%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

ALKMAARWWWWWWDLWL2.20 PPG

HAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FCWLWWDLWDWW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ALKMAAR HOMExHAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME1.400.90CONCEDED A GAME1.2040%CLEAN SHEETS40%12%FAILED TO SCORE0%7.75CORNERS A GAME5.381.38CARDS A GAME3.00

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.17POINTS A GAME2.00+0.83GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.80+7.7SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–2.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.06LEAGUE GAMES5

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

72%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

23%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

90%

OKAY · 85/90

ALKMAAR OR DRAW

68%

NO · 80/85

HAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC OR DRAW

51%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ALKMAARxHAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME1.401.40CONCEDED A GAME0.603.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%60%BOTH SCORE20%2.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–10.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

ALKMAAR

Out: J. Hornkamp (Injury), S. Resink (Knee Injury), K. Smit (Injury), H. Verhulst (Off the roster), J. Hornkamp (Injury), S. Resink (Knee Injury)

HAPOEL BE`ER SHEVA FC

Out: D. Biton (Heart Problems), Y. Stoyanov (Off the roster), M. Baltaxa (Inactive), Y. Malede (Inactive), D. Biton (Heart Problems), Y. Stoyanov (Off the roster)

TRENDS

Alkmaar have scored in 80% of their games.

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC have scored in 80% of their games.

Alkmaar kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards