COLOMBIA - COPA DIMAYOR
02:30Thu 15 Oct
IND
IM
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin
CLASS D
THE BETSTRONG · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…
81
DOUBLE CHANCE
Class D
Double Chance: Atletico Nacional or…
Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin
1.21odds
83%book
-2edge
1/1angles
EDGE PICKIndependiente Medellin Over 0.5 goals · 62.7% · @1.44
Book 69% · Us 63% -6 price too short
Backed by
· main loses on: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 0-4, 2-3, 1-4, 0-5, 2-4, 1-5, 0-6 and 43 more up to 10-10 | hedge wins on all of themIndependiente Medellin scored in 4 of 5 away · Atletico Nacional conceded in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 78% · H2H 3 of 6 · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level
THE READ
Match details. Copa DIMAYOR, Quarter-finals. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 02:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
What's at stake. Independiente Medellin are 1st on 8 points after 4 games, 3 points clear of Fortaleza FC. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Atletico Nacional have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L W. Independiente Medellin have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W.
The numbers. Atletico Nacional score 1.8 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Atletico Nacional average 15.6 shots (6.7 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Independiente Medellin score two and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. Independiente Medellin average 12.5 shots (5.5 on target), 4.7 corners and 3.1 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Atletico Nacional have won four, drawn five and lost one. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Atletico Nacional won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 12 Apr 2026, it finished Atletico Nacional 3-2 Independiente Medellin: Atletico Nacional had 20 shots to 11, 59% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. A knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Atletico Nacional are not clearly stronger.
The read. Atletico Nacional or the draw. Atletico Nacional are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atletico Nacional; the meetings favour Atletico Nacional.
The bets. Best bet: Atletico Nacional or Draw at 1.21, 83% on the records (Atletico Nacional unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; Independiente Medellin failed to win 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Independiente Medellin Under 1.5 goals (Independiente Medellin's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); 1X2 - 2UP: Atletico Nacional (the signs point different ways); Atletico Nacional to Win (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 1-1 Independiente Medellin (13% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Atletico Nacional or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.14
ATL 5 of 5 (100%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)93.3%
Atletico Nacional scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin trailed or failed to win in 4 of 5 away · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Atletico Nacional or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)82.7%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 94% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · the call is Atletico Nacional or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if lev
Double Chance: Atletico Nacional or DrawMAININ CODES
1.21
ATL 5 of 5 (100%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)81.1%
Atletico Nacional unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin failed to win 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 72% · H2H 6 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Atletico Nacional or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.20
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · IND 4 of 5 (80%)76.9%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · the call is Atletico Nacional or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if lev
Atletico Nacional (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.42
ATL 6 of 7 (86%) · IND 3 of 7 (43%)76.8%
Atletico Nacional won 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Independiente Medellin lost 3 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 64% · H2H 4 of 4 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · won 6, refunded 3, lost 3
Atletico Nacional 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.49
ATL 3 of 5 (60%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)66.7%
Atletico Nacional scored first 3 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 3 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin trailed in 4 of 5 away · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · the call is Atletico Nacional or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Atletico
Atletico Nacional or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.57
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)65.8%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 61% · H2H 3 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Atletico Nacional or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.37
ATL 3 of 5 (60%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)64.4%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · the call is Atletico Nacional or the draw: a knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if lev
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ATL 5 of 5 (100%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)95.8%
Atletico Nacional: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 94% · H2H 5 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES
1.13
ATL 5 of 5 (100%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)91.7%
Atletico Nacional: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 89% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.28
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)78.5%
Atletico Nacional: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 89% · H2H 3 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.90
ATL 2 of 5 (40%) · IND 4 of 5 (80%)50.7%
Atletico Nacional: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 67% · H2H 3 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY
1.74
ATL 3 of 5 (60%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)56.9%
Atletico Nacional: both scored in 3 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: both scored in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 67% · H2H 3 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
ATLETICO NACIONAL GOALS
Atletico Nacional Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.15
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · IND 4 of 5 (80%)76.9%
Atletico Nacional scored in 4 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN GOALS
Independiente Medellin Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.44
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)62.7%
Independiente Medellin scored in 4 of 5 away · Atletico Nacional conceded in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 78% · H2H 3 of 6 · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.21
ATL 3 of 5 (60%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)71.9%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 78% · H2H 3 of 6 · on half-time scores · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.37
ATL 3 of 5 (60%) · IND 3 of 5 (60%)64.7%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 72% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
CARDS
Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ATL 3 of 5 (60%) · IND 5 of 5 (100%)81.1%
Atletico Nacional's games: over 3.5 cards in 3 of 5 at home · Independiente Medellin's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at Independiente Medellin's level · Independiente Medellin: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Left off the list: Independiente Medellin Under 1.5 goals (Independiente Medellin's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); 1X2 - 2UP: Atletico Nacional (the numbers (47%) and the records (60%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Atletico Nacional to Win (the numbers (45%) and the records (54%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–1 12.6%
Atletico Nacional goals →
Independiente Medellin goals ↓
0-07%
1-09%
2-08%
3-04%
4-02%
5-00.5%
0-17%
1-113%
2-19%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.6%
0-25%
1-27%
2-25%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.3%
0-32%
1-33%
2-32%
3-31%
4-30.4%
5-30.1%
0-40.5%
1-40.8%
2-40.6%
3-40.3%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.2%
2-50.2%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).
FORM · LAST 10
ATLETICO NACIONALWWWWWWLDWD2.30 PPG
INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLINWWWLDWLDLW1.70 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ATLETICO NACIONAL HOMExINDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN AWAY
2.10SCORED A GAME1.800.90CONCEDED A GAME1.3030%CLEAN SHEETS10%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%6.20CORNERS A GAME4.702.70CARDS A GAME3.10
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
2.00POINTS A GAME1.67+0.80GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.25+6.1SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+2.81.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.410LEAGUE GAMES12
No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
77%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
61%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
84%
NO · 85/90
ATLETICO NACIONAL OR DRAW
80%
NO · 80/85
INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN OR DRAW
52%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 12 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
ATLETICO NACIONALxINDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN
5GAMES61.60SCORED A GAME1.830.60CONCEDED A GAME1.502.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.380%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS83%60%BOTH SCORE67%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.6–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES7.6
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
ATLETICO NACIONAL 4 · 40%DRAW 5INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN 1 · 10%
6 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
4 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
3 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2024-11-18Atletico Nacional 0 – 1 Independiente Medellin
2025-03-23Atletico Nacional 1 – 1 Independiente Medellin
2025-05-04Atletico Nacional 1 – 1 Independiente Medellin
2025-09-07Atletico Nacional 3 – 3 Independiente Medellin
2025-10-26Atletico Nacional 5 – 2 Independiente Medellin
2025-11-23Atletico Nacional 0 – 0 Independiente Medellin
2025-12-04Atletico Nacional 2 – 1 Independiente Medellin
2025-12-13Atletico Nacional 0 – 0 Independiente Medellin
TRENDS
Atletico Nacional have scored in 80% of their games.
Independiente Medellin have scored in 80% of their games.
Atletico Nacional kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
Independiente Medellin kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headcornerscards